Just two months ago, many in the West thought President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey could be shifting away from what they considered his overly close relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
Mr. Erdogan had a warm meeting with President Biden. Turkey allowed a group of celebrated Ukrainian commanders, being held in the country as part of a prisoner exchange deal, to return to the battlefield, angering Russia. And Mr. Erdogan dropped his resistance to allowing Sweden to join NATO, strengthening the military alliance’s efforts to isolate Russia.
But there was no signal of a major change in Mr. Erdogan’s balancing act between Russia and the West on Monday, when he and Mr. Putin stood side by side in the Russian resort city of Sochi and spoke of further expanding their countries’ partnership. They would increase trade and work together on energy issues, they said, despite efforts by Mr. Erdogan’s NATO allies to cripple Russia’s economy and limit its access to global energy markets.
They also discussed a more pressing geopolitical topic — the resumption of an agreement to allow the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea — although they announced no concrete progress.
The leaders’ joint appearance made clear that their relationship endures and will likely continue to develop, largely because both sides have more to gain from the partnership than they stand to lose, analysts said.
As Russia finds itself ostracized from the West, Turkey has served as a vital channel, declining to join Western sanctions and continuing to ship much needed goods to Russia. For Turkey, struggling with an economic crisis, Russia has proved a fertile market for Turkish exports and has bolstered the Turkish government’s finances with delayed gas payments and deposits in Turkey’s central bank.
“As far as Erdogan is concerned, he is, in my opinion, living in the best of both worlds,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Beykoz University in Istanbul.
The Turkish leader has managed to take steps to please his NATO allies, like agreeing to admit Sweden to NATO and meeting with Mr. Biden, without jeopardizing the many perks of his relationship with Mr. Putin.
Mr. Putin also benefits from his open channel with the leader of a NATO country, Mr. Han said, because it gives him an indirect way to communicate his views to the rest of the alliance, sometimes to the frustration of other members.
“If I were in the Kremlin, I would prefer a member of the alliance that sometimes hinders and delays issues that are of tactical importance to the members,” Mr. Han said. “It is nice to have a nuisance like that among your rivals.”
Since Russia invaded Ukraine 18 months ago, deciphering the relationship between Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan has been an evolving puzzle for Western policymakers as they navigate the complex diplomacy surrounding the war.
For the West, Mr. Putin is the conflict’s villain, and the United States…
2023-09-04 17:47:06
Post from www.nytimes.com
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