The announcement of a prisoner exchange deal between the United States and Iran could increase the prospects for further diplomatic cooperation, including the Biden administration’s longstanding goal of containing Iran’s nuclear program, according to officials and analysts.
While multiple flash points and deep-seated hostilities exist between Washington and Tehran, including Iranian threats to shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the success of a painstakingly negotiated prisoner agreement removes a severe problem from a relationship that is never far from military confrontation.
Under the deal announced on Thursday, Iran will release five Iranian Americans from custody in return for the freeing of five Iranians jailed in the United States, along with the unfreezing of some $6 billion in Iranian assets for humanitarian purposes under strict monitoring.
“The prisoner deal is a key step forward for Washington and Tehran’s efforts to lower tensions as they eye a return to formal nuclear negotiations later this year,” said Henry Rome, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The deal comes as Iran and the United States appear to be observing an informal agreement under which Iran has limited its nuclear program and restrained proxy militias in Iraq and Syria to avoid harsh American reprisals.
U.S. officials have repeatedly denied that they reached any nuclear “deal” with Iran after indirect talks held in Oman earlier this year. But officials from several countries have described those discussions, and Iran appears to be adhering to an agreement. Its parameters include Iranian enrichment of uranium at purity levels no higher than 60 percent, and no significant attacks on U.S. troops by Iranian proxy forces in Syria and Iraq.
Two senior Israeli defense officials said the deal involving the prisoners and the frozen funds is part of the broader understandings reached in Oman. These understandings, according to the officials, are already being implemented on the ground. One senior U.S. military official said that there has been decreased activity by Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq against U.S. troops there in recent weeks. One of the Israeli officials added that while Iran has sent military assistance, including potent drones, to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine last year, Moscow would like more than it has received.
Mr. Rome said the Biden administration likely hopes that formal nuclear talks organized by the European Union could restart later this year. The negotiations, aimed at restoring the 2015 Iran nuclear deal from which President Donald J. Trump withdrew in 2018, collapsed last summer amid what U.S. officials called unacceptable Iranian demands.
But Mr. Rome added the Biden administration was unlikely to want a new nuclear agreement ahead of the 2024 election, given the issue’s political volatility. Iran may feel the same way, given Mr. Trump’s…
2023-08-11 11:13:44
Source from www.nytimes.com