How has Boris Johnson’s approach to managing the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated a failure to “follow the science”?
The Covid-19 pandemic has put politicians under immense pressure to make decisions that can impact millions of lives. The UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, was no exception. He repeatedly claimed that his decisions were based on science, but did he really ‘follow the science’ when it counted?
The importance of maths in handling pandemics
Mathematics plays a vital role in epidemics and pandemics. It helps us understand how a virus spreads, how quickly it can infect people, and how interventions such as lockdowns can slow it down. If a politician cannot make accurate calculations based on mathematical models, it is difficult to trust their decision-making process.
At the height of the pandemic, Johnson and his government were heavily criticized for not acting quickly enough to contain the spread of the virus. The government’s own scientific advisory group, SAGE, was warning of the potential consequences of not taking immediate action. Despite this, Johnson delayed implementing a lockdown for several crucial days.
Flawed modelling
In September 2020, the UK government’s scientific advisers presented a model that suggested that the second wave of the virus could result in 4,000 deaths a day. This prompted Johnson to implement a second lockdown. However, it later emerged that the modelling was flawed, and the actual projection was closer to 1,000 deaths a day.
This error highlights the importance of understanding mathematical modelling in the context of pandemics. Decisions made based on incorrect modelling can have severe consequences for public health and economies.
Not following the advice of his own scientific advisory group
In December 2020, Johnson was once again criticized for not following the advice of his own scientific advisory group. SAGE had recommended a lockdown before Christmas, but Johnson refused to implement it. As a result, the UK experienced a surge in cases and deaths in early 2021.
Johnson’s reluctance to implement the lockdown can be attributed to his desire to salvage the economy and avoid further damage to businesses. However, the decision had devastating consequences for public health, with many lives lost unnecessarily.
Conclusion
Johnson’s defence that he ‘followed the science’ is questionable, given his reluctance to implement lockdowns when advised to do so by his own scientific advisers, and his failure to understand the importance of mathematical modelling in pandemics. In the future, it is important for politicians to prioritize scientific advice and take proactive measures when dealing with pandemics to avoid further loss of life.
Bold points to remember:
- Mathematics is crucial in understanding pandemics
- Inaccurate modelling can have severe consequences for public health and economies
- Not following scientific advice can lead to unnecessary loss of life
- Politicians need to prioritize scientific advice in handling pandemics
In the midst of the global pandemic that has claimed millions of lives and upended the world order, it is crucial that our leaders implement a scientific, data-driven approach to contain and mitigate the virus. However, Kit Yates, a mathematics professor at the University of Bath and author of “The Maths of Life and Death”, argues that Boris Johnson’s Covid response may not be entirely scientific due to his lack of mathematical proficiency.
As a former journalist and mayor, Johnson’s career had not previously required an extensive understanding of mathematics – a subject that is necessary for interpreting data and making informed decisions. In Yates’ opinion, this deficiency has been manifest in his handling of the pandemic.
For instance, Yates points to the UK’s “herd immunity” strategy, which Johnson initially floated as a means of tackling the pandemic, as a clear misinterpretation of mathematical modelling. Yates argues that the plan was based on optimistic projections that did not fully account for the virus’s rapid transmission and potential for exponential growth. He concludes that Johnson’s willingness to pursue herd immunity without a better understanding of the underlying mathematics highlights his lack of scientific rigour.
Moreover, Yates raises concerns about Johnson’s decision-making process surrounding crucial decisions such as the imposition of lockdown measures. The professor argues that the decision to impose lockdown restrictions in March 2020 was based on a flawed study that underestimated the severity of the virus’s spread. Although Johnson later reversed this initial stance, Yates believes that the error was an example of the government’s poor handling of vital epidemiological information, suggesting that the Prime Minister may not possess the necessary scientific precisions to make informed decisions.
In conclusion, Yates’ assessment suggests that Johnson’s response to the Covid crisis has not always been based on rigorous scientific analysis, leading to decisions that were based on flawed, overly optimistic modeling. While the vaccine rollout has been successful, the UK’s overall response to the pandemic was ultimately shaped by Johnson’s mathematical limitations. This highlights how pivotal it is for leaders to have expertise in the scientific field to handle crises such as a pandemic, and the importance of ensuring that they have the skills and knowledge necessary to make informed, data-driven decisions that can save lives.
