The metaverse has been described as the next phase of the internet: interconnected and persistent 3D spaces where we will work, play, and, so it seems, purchase virtual real estate. But metaverse-related technologies have failed to keep up with the considerable hype, the vision of ultrarealistic virtual environments offered by tech vendors miles away from the current reality of cartoony avatars and cumbersome, expensive headsets.
As the hype spotlight has shifted sharply to generative AI and all its dangers and possibilities, talk of the metaverse — or “Meh-taverse” — these days largely centers on its demise. And not without reason: Meta (formerly Facebook), which changed its name in 2021 to reflect its new focus, has spent billions on VR development with comparatively little return, at least so far. Sales of VR and AR headsets have fallen short of expectations. And Microsoft shuttered AltspaceVR, the social VR platform it acquired in 2017, and has reportedly laid off workers focused on mixed reality development while making AI its clear priority going forward.
The metaverse’s association with other struggling “Web3” technologies, namely blockchain, NFTs, and crypto — considered by some to be essential to the future decentralized metaverse — hasn’t exactly helped either.
“We are in a winter for the metaverse, and how long that chill lasts remains to be seen,” said J.P. Gownder, vice president and principal analyst on Forrester’s Future of Work team. Late last year, the analyst firm predicted a drop-off in interest during 2023 as a more realistic picture of the technology’s current possibilities emerged. “The hype was way exceeding the reality of the capabilities of the technology, the interest from customers — both business and consumer — and just the overall maturity of the market.”
Yet the metaverse concept isn’t going away. “We think that, in the future, something like the metaverse will exist, whereby we have a 3D experience layer over the internet,” said Gownder. Don’t expect this to happen any time soon, though: the development of the metaverse could take a decade, according to Forrester. Another analyst firm, Gartner, envisions a similar timeframe.
Research firm Gartner is tracking multiple metaverse-related technologies. (Click image to enlarge it.)
As metaverse hype subsides, the underlying technologies continue to develop and evolve, on both the hardware and software front. At the same time, necessary but less attention-grabbing elements, such as standards, are beginning to coalesce, with the establishment of the Metaverse Standards Forum, for example. Meanwhile, businesses continue to find a variety of use cases — whether in virtual and augmented reality or browser-based 3D environments — for what may prove to be the precursors to a more fully formed metaverse further down the line.
“We need to think about this notion of the ‘Meta’…
2023-06-07 04:30:03
Article from www.computerworld.com rnrn