From 1h agoKey events4m agoInternational comparisons7m agoING: UK economy has largely stagnated this year21m agoUK grew by 0.2% in September25m agoFlatlining GDP shows impact of high interest rates39m agoHunt: inflation is biggest barrier to growth45m agoReal estate and transport & storage shrank55m agoUK GDP: the main points1h agoUK economy stagnated in third quarter of 20232h agoIntroduction: UK GDP report may show shrinking economyFilters BETAKey events (9)UK (17)Office for National Statistics (8)Bank of England (3)3m ago02.57 EST
The UK is a ‘stagnation nation’ at real risk of a recession, says the Resolution Foundation thinktank.
James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, explains:
“The UK economy has stagnated again in recent months, driven in part by the rapid rise in interest rates since late 2021. There is a real risk that the UK could fall into recession for the fourth time in 15 years.
“Britain is a stagnation nation that has struggled to secure sustained economic growth since the financial crisis. Addressing this is the central task we face as a country, and must be at the heart of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement in 10 days’ time.”
Britain stuck as a ‘stagnation nation’ as GDP data lay bare the challenges for the Autumn Statement – @JamesSmithRF responds to the latest @ONS GDP data pic.twitter.com/YaZjwDwvUV
— Resolution Foundation (@resfoundation) November 10, 2023
4m ago02.55 ESTInternational comparisons
Britain’s failure to grow in the last quarter compares poorly to the US economy, which had a strong three months.
But it’s better than Germany, and the wider eurozone, which both shrank a little.
Here’s the latest data we have for Q3 GDP in major advanced economies:
US: grew by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter
Eurozone: shrank by 0.1%
Germany: shrank by 0.1%
France: grew by 0.1%
Italy: stagnated
Japan is predicted to have shrunk by 0.1% in July-September (the data is due next week).
Canada’s GDP is forecast to have been “essentially unchanged” in the third quarter.
7m ago02.53 ESTING: UK economy has largely stagnated this year
Although UK GDP in July-September was a little better than expected, the economy has largely stagnated this year, says James Smith, developed markets economist at ING.
We shouldn’t make too much of the fact that the UK economy performed a little better than expected in the third quarter. The level of real GDP was flat relative to the second quarter, compared to consensus and our own expectation of a 0.1% decline.
The details reveal that the economy was rescued by net imports, a category that tends to be pretty volatile between quarters. Other key areas – notably consumption and business investment – were negative on the quarter. But we also have to remember that it’s been a fairly wild few months for several key sub-sectors of the GDP figures. June saw a massive 0.7% rise in activity, owing to a highly unusual surge in manufacturing. And July saw a…
2023-11-10 02:53:27
Article from www.theguardian.com
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