Tropical Storm Hilary formed off the coast of Mexico on Wednesday, becoming the eighth named storm of this year’s Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
As of early Wednesday morning, the storm had sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical disturbances with sustained winds of 39 m.p.h. are given a name. Once winds reach 74 m.p.h., a storm becomes a hurricane, and at 111 m.p.h., it becomes a major hurricane.
Hilary formed 470 miles off the coast of Manzanillo, Mexico, and was moving west-northwest toward Baja California. The storm could potentially impact the peninsula and the Southwestern United States this weekend, as forecasted by the Hurricane Center. The magnitude of wind and rainfall in these areas is yet to be determined.
Whether a storm forms in the Atlantic or the Pacific, it generally moves west, making Atlantic storms more threatening to North America. If a storm forms near land in the Pacific, it can bring damaging winds and rain before dissipating over the sea.
However, sometimes an air mass can block a storm, causing it to move north or northeast towards the Baja California peninsula and the west coast of Mexico. Occasionally, a storm can even move farther north, as seen with post-tropical cyclone Kay last year, which brought damaging wind and intense rain to Southern California. In rare cases, storms may cross the state. For example, in 1997, Hurricane Nora made landfall in Baja California before moving inland and reaching Arizona as a tropical storm.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks before the Atlantic season. Both seasons last until November 30.
This year, the likely development of El Niño complicates things in the Pacific. El Niño, an intermittent large-scale weather pattern, can have various effects on global weather. In the Pacific, El Niño reduces wind shear, which normally prevents storm formation. Therefore, a reduction in wind shear increases the chances of storms. In contrast, El Niño in the Atlantic increases wind shear, reducing the likelihood of storm formation.
Hawaii, located in the central Pacific, is occasionally affected by storms forming to the east. However, it is uncommon for a named storm to make landfall in Hawaii due to its small land area divided among several islands. The last hurricane to make landfall in Hawaii was Iniki in 1992. In 2020, Hurricane Douglas avoided a direct hit on the state but still caused damaging winds.
On average, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The Central Pacific typically experiences four or five named storms annually.
Scientists widely agree that hurricanes are becoming more powerful due to climate change. While there may not be an increase in the number of hurricanes, their intensity is escalating.
2023-08-16 11:40:42
Article from www.nytimes.com
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