The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a grave warning regarding the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a record-breaking 17 to 25 named tropical cyclones for this year. This forecast surpasses all previous May predictions for the Atlantic Ocean.
Various experts from universities, private companies, and government agencies have also projected a high likelihood of 14 or more named storms, with some estimates exceeding 20 storms.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad stated that between eight to 13 of these named storms could intensify into hurricanes, with the potential for four to seven major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher.
Remnants of Hurricane Idalia in Florida’s Big Bend region from last year. Idalia was one of the most powerful storms in 2023.Credit…Zack Wittman for The New York Times
NOAA indicates an 85 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with a 10 percent chance of near-normal activity and a 5 percent chance of below-normal activity. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
While a single storm in a below-average season can cause significant damage, the increased likelihood of double the average number of storms raises concerns about potential tropical storms or major hurricanes affecting North America.
This year’s official storm name list includes 21 entries, ranging from Alberto to William. In the event that all names are used, the National Weather Service will resort to an alternative list, a scenario that has only occurred twice in history.
A scene of destruction following Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., in 2022.Credit…Damon Winter/The New York Times
NOAA typically releases a May forecast followed by an updated forecast in August. Prior to this announcement, NOAA’s most significant May forecast was in 2010, predicting 14 to 23 named storms, with 19 storms forming that season. In 2020, the May forecast anticipated 13 to 19 named storms, but the updated August forecast increased the range to 19 to 25 named storms, resulting in a total of 30 named storms that season.
The aggressive hurricane outlooks for this year are attributed to the unprecedented conditions expected to prevail.
Forecasters are facing a unique situation as they anticipate the official start of the season on June 1, with record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic and the potential development of a La Niña weather pattern, circumstances never before seen since the mid-1800s.
University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy emphasized the challenge of predicting the upcoming season due to the absence of historical precedents under these specific conditions.
2024-07-05 23:14:20
Article from www.nytimes.com