I don’t expect this to be a popular opinion, but Apple has sucked all the oxygen out of the virtual/augmented reality industry with the announcement of its Vision Pro headset.
Gasping for air
What’s the evidence? Just data.
Counterpoint data from China shows the VR market there declined 56% year-over-year across the first half of this year. This follows two years of growth in the sector.
Global sales patterns reflect a similar reality, with sales down 39% in the first part of the year. IDC data reflects similar trends, with a 44.6% decline in Q4.
Some of the reasons the analysts see for this decline include consolidation in China’s VR market, tepid economies, and the absence (yet) of killer apps and ecosystems. Those are all valid, but I think anticipation of the Apple product is also denting interest in current VR platforms.
“Chinese Augmented Reality (AR) companies … have a more optimistic outlook for their future development, thanks to the emphasis on Mixed Reality (MR) features by the Apple Vision Pro,” wrote Counterpoint. “They strongly believe in the significance of the interaction between <a href="https://news.ad-astra.icu/microsofts-mixed-reality-and-generative-ai-moves-girding-for-war.html" title="Microsoft’s mixed reality and generative AI moves — girding for war?”>virtual objects and the real world, which may position AR as the ultimate future solution.”
Developers are focusing on visionOS. Apple has been hosting developers to Vision Pro developer labs since June. We know this because the market keeps inventing reports to say how poorly attended these are, which probably isn’t completely accurate.
Love is like oxygen
Other than Apple, Meta remains the current leading hope to take VR mainstream with its Quest 3 headset. But it lacks the hold on people’s hearts and minds that Apple has achieved.
Not only that, consumer perception of products from the brand is permanently dented by Facebook, which roughly three quarters of adult Americans say makes society worse.
Consumers do worry about price, but they also prefer to take the best option they have. $500 isn’t cheap, nor is $3,500, but anyone preparing to spend a dime on headsets will want to take a look before they buy. Right now, consumers will want to see what Apple achieves with Vision Pro next year.
Yes, the $3,500 price tag for those devices may put people off, but they aren’t going to shove $500 on the table for a lesser device today if they think it’s possible that what they’ve bought will instantly look second rate when Apple’s device finally appears. They may not be able to afford that device, but they won’t want to end up with something no one wants — where’s the bragging rights?
In the weeks before Apple’s Vision Pro announcement, industry speculation predicted that Apple’s entry into the market would raise all the boats. It will, but it must leave dry dock first.
Not only that, but the current economic and political climate is increasingly risk averse, prompting at least one survey report to state: “The data shows businesses believe VR/AR is the future of content, but after so many…
2023-10-15 11:00:03
Article from www.computerworld.com rnrn