Since the early days of Donald J. Trump’s rise, many observers in the United States and elsewhere have been waiting for the “big one” — the scandal or indictment or gaffe that would end his political career and the chaotic Trump era of American politics.
But while this week’s indictment, accusing him of conspiracies to overturn a legitimate election in pursuit of power, takes the United States into uncharted territory, a comparison to other countries suggests that the charges are neither a beginning nor an end in the Trump era.
Rather, the latest indictment may only be a signpost in the middle of a longer period of American politics: a period of polarization, weakened institutions and political crises.
Other countries’ recent histories suggest that allegations of severe wrongdoing by leaders are not just a problem on their own terms but a symptom of much deeper issues. And while prosecutions can be powerful tools to address the symptoms, evidence suggests that they cannot, on their own, fix underlying weaknesses in political systems.
A breakdown of consequences
When people wonder whether something is going to be the “big one,” they’re usually asking about the likely consequences: Could this scandal provoke such a strong response that it ends Mr. Trump’s political career?
For much of modern political history, the story went something like this: A politician does something that violates laws or important norms, like abusing the powers of their office. The public finds out, and a scandal grows. Then the politician is forced to resign. That’s more or less what happened to President Richard Nixon, for instance: He resigned under the threat of impeachment, as evidence of his role in the Watergate scandal emerged.
But that process depended on political parties being strong and disciplined enough to force politicians out.
“If you go back 40, 60, 80 years in any democracy, politicians seeking to get elected and sustain a political career depended so heavily on the political establishment that they had to conform to certain norms and policy parameters that the establishment imposed,” Steve Levitsky, the Harvard political scientist who co-wrote the book “How Democracies Die,” said in a recent interview.
In that kind of system, with political parties acting as the gatekeepers of media attention, public messaging and fund-raising, a politician’s career would likely be over long before an indictment landed.
In the 21st century, political parties are much weaker and can’t always play that role. Thanks to the internet and social media, politicians can speak to voters directly — and raise money off them — leaving parties with far less influence on politicians’ behavior, Mr. Levitsky said. That’s especially true in systems with direct elections, like the United States, where parties already had less power than in parliamentary democracies.
So violating taboos is no longer as likely to be career-ending as it once was — and in…
2023-08-02 14:51:04
Article from www.nytimes.com
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