From 9m agoKey events9m agoRishi Sunak makes Commons statement on airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen32m agoGreens on course to hold Brighton Pavilion, and would come close to winning Bristol Central, YouGov poll suggests1h agoSunak tells Tory rebels on Rwanda bill there are circumstances in which he would ignore Strasbourg court injuctions2h agoIslamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir to be banned from organising in UK2h agoGillian Keegan brushes aside poll suggesting she’s on course to lose her 21,000 majority to Lib Dems3h agoNo 10 says David Cameron right to say all politicians from past 20 years should be sorry about Post Office Horizon scandal3h agoStarmer says Labour members should ignore poll saying he’s on course for landslide, and ‘fight like we’re 5% behind’3h agoShapps suggests defence spending needs to rise as he says ‘era of peace dividend is over’4h agoShapps says airstrikes against Houthis were ‘last resort’, and intended as ‘single action’4h agoSunak refuses to say if Lee Anderson will be sacked as Tory deputy chair if he votes against government on Rwanda bill4h agoSunak plays down significance of polling suggesting he is on course to lose election by landslide5h agoKemi Badenoch reportedly urging Sunak to toughen Rwanda bill6h agoUK ‘will wait and see’ before deciding on further Houthi strikes, Shapps says6h agoYouGov rejects claim its poll shows, without Reform UK standing in election, Labour would fail to win majority6h agoGrant Shapps dismisses significance of Tory-backed poll suggesting Labour on course for landslide election winFilters BETAKey events (15)Rishi Sunak (10)Grant Shapps (5)David Frost (4)Keir Starmer (3)11m ago10.30 EST
Sam Freedman, the Prospect columnist, has a good thread on X on the YouGov polling too. Here are some of his posts.
The detail of the YouGov MRP is far worse for the Tories than the topline result.
There are no seats where they score more than 40% of the vote. In only 74 do they score more than 35%.
There are fewer than 40 seats where they are 10pts ahead of the 2nd placed party.
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) January 15, 2024
The detail of the YouGov MRP is far worse for the Tories than the topline result.
There are no seats where they score more than 40% of the vote. In only 74 do they score more than 35%.
There are fewer than 40 seats where they are 10pts ahead of the 2nd placed party.
There are just 12 seats where the Tory vote share outweights the combined Labour and LD vote share. And only two if you include the Greens as well.
Gives an indication as to the damage heavy tactical voting could do.
A couple of examples. The MRP has Stratford-upon-Avon (Zahawi’s seat) as:
34% Con
31% LD
19% Lab
You’ve got to assume Labour are going to put zero effort into that seat and LDs will bombard with “only we can win here” leaflets.
Or Spelthorne which is Kwasi Kwarteng’s seat:
34% Con
29% Lab
19% LD
Same pattern the other way round (and this is not a seat anywhere near Labour’s target…
2024-01-15 10:30:10
Article from www.theguardian.com
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