The age of generative AI comes with the promise that it will significantly increase productivity. I can certainly see the potential given I’m using a form of it writing this column and it is doing a decent job of anticipating the next word I intend to write. But I’m also noticing that to get the most from this feature, I need to hit the right arrow key, which slows me down considerably. So, I generally end up typing the entire word anyway because the keyboard I’m using doesn’t lend itself to making autocomplete work.
In a nutshell, rather than speeding up my writing (the promise), the impact on my productivity may be negative (the reality) because, when I do hit the arrow key, it breaks my typing flow and forces me to reposition my right hand.
For this kind of AI tool to be a benefit, I’d need to not only modify my keyboard, I’d also need to retrain myself to use the correct arrow key rather than typing the complete word. (This could take a while, given I’ve been typing without doing this for around 55 years.)
The critical path
When we learn about process optimization, we usually discuss a concept called “the critical path.” This is the path a process has that defines how quickly something can get done. If you improve anything but the critical path, the rate at which the process completes is still gated by the untouched critical path and you’re unlikely to see a productivity improvement.
We saw this play out from the initial reaction writers had to generative AI. They were able to create books at an amazing pace, up to hundreds a week, but the critical path was in editing. Editors who were already maxed out couldn’t handle the arrival of hundreds of manuscripts. Many publishers had to stop accepting manuscripts because they couldn’t edit them in time.
The better plan would have been to somehow automate editing first, but that would require far more training for the AI to make sure the manuscripts complied with the publishers’ policies, and that work has yet to be done.
Even if you alter the initial critical path first, you’re likely to find other dependencies that then become the new critical path, substantially limiting any benefits until that new path is also improved.
Measuring productivity: cars and people
I’m into cars. With cars, you measure performance on a machine called a Dyno, and you learn quickly that horsepower alone doesn’t increase performance. The car still must make it down the track and put that power down to the road. Traction, suspension, driver skills, weight, placement of the drive wheels, weight transfer under acceleration, leans, aerodynamics, heat, and the reliability of parts all play equally critical roles. The only true test of performance isn’t horsepower or torque— it’s how the car performs competitively.
Compared to people, cars are simple. People have a variety of different tasks that they often have no control over. Inbound email,…
2023-07-07 03:00:08
Link from www.computerworld.com rnrn