Front cowl of “Planet Positive Chemicals” report. Credit: Center for Global Commons, The University of Tokyo
A brand new report sends a dire warning to the chemical {industry}, which it says is on monitor for a future international warming state of affairs with catastrophic penalties, and units out tangible, credible pathways for the sector to turn out to be an enabler of a sustainable international financial system by 2050, whereas overseeing dramatic development.
The report titled Planet Positive Chemicals, was put collectively by the Center for Global Commons on the University of Tokyo and impartial consultancy Systemiq, and printed September 2022. It explores how the chemical {industry}, which accounts for round 4% of world greenhouse fuel emissions, can transition to a sustainable, low-emissions mannequin and function inside planetary boundaries—the bounds on important Earth processes tied to human exercise (comparable to local weather change, chemical air pollution and stratospheric ozone depletion) for humanity to securely perform on the planet.
The report, recognizing the presence of chemical substances in all spheres of our fashionable financial system, from packaging and shopper items to building and fertilizers, additionally factors out the numerous function the {industry} will play in serving to different sectors obtain net-zero carbon dioxide emissions.
The publication gives an in depth view of the long run pathways for the {industry}, using a systemwide examination of the probably demand for chemical substances in a net-zero world and exploring the sector’s CO2 emissions alongside its total worth chain. The report integrates cautious consideration of how briskly and at what scale particular net-zero-enabling applied sciences might be out there to assist the {industry} make the transition it must function inside the planetary boundaries, a lot of which it’s mentioned to be breaching.
The paper highlights the {industry}’s a number of dangerous impacts on the planet, together with excessive carbon emissions and air pollution, and the way it lags behind different sectors in local weather motion. The report additionally identifies the necessity for radical interventions on each provide and demand sides, comparable to decoupling from the {industry}’s long-standing dependence on fossil gas for manufacturing and switching to renewable feedstocks (uncooked supplies used within the industrial manufacturing course of) and power sources, and making use of carbon seize and storage applied sciences to cut back CO2 emissions.
Additionally, it says chemical manufacturing would want to double by 2050 to allow a sustainable international financial system, with fast development in two key chemical substances for his or her net-zero-enabling functions—ammonia (representing 60% of demand), to be used as a sustainable transport gas, and methanol (representing 20%), to create plastic with out fossil gas.
Industry development may additionally create 29 million new jobs, in response to a long-term state of affairs set out within the report.
Moreover, round approaches, with the {industry} reusing and recycling chemical substances or switching to lower-emissions alternate options, can scale back complete demand for chemical substances, it says.
The report additionally paints the state of affairs wherein the chemical system takes on a brand new function, passing net-zero carbon emissions by the early 2040s, and sequestering sufficient CO2 to make it emissions-negative and function a “carbon sink” by 2050.
The capital expenditures to construct such a round, net-zero chemical system, which might entail retrofitting legacy infrastructure and switching from fossil gas to renewable feedstock sources, comparable to inexperienced hydrogen manufactured utilizing renewable power solely, would require funds value over $3 trillion by 2050, in response to the report.
The authors say the Planet-Positive Chemicals report goals to assist the {industry} and policymakers unite round a typical view of the trail forward and speed up the transition to a sustainable mannequin of operation, particularly within the “decade that issues,” between now and 2030. The paper suggests 10 key actions that would rework the system, together with establishing a worldwide constitution of transition rules and a first-movers coalition to seed markets for net-zero chemical substances.
Naoko Ishii, UTokyo govt vp and Center for Global Commons director, mentioned, “To keep away from the collapse of the complicated and interdependent Earth techniques on which humanity, together with our financial prosperity, relies upon, we have to rework our social and financial techniques and our existence. The chemical {industry} has an outsized function to play, with its merchandise used throughout many sectors and is ubiquitous in fashionable life. The alternative is evident: to deliver the system again inside the planetary boundaries, together with net-zero GHG (greenhouse gases) and turn out to be a contributor to the worldwide commons (the secure and resilient Earth system that sustains our lives). We hope this report will open the controversy about how the chemical {industry} can rework itself to know that chance.”
Guido Schmidt-Traub, managing companion of Systemiq, mentioned, “The chemical {industry} underpins each fashionable financial system, but it surely should change profoundly throughout its total worth chain to satisfy the goals of the Paris Agreement (on local weather change). Importantly, these modifications are eminently possible utilizing confirmed applied sciences outlined on this report. The suggestions for policymakers, the {industry} and the funding neighborhood are sensible and actionable.”
The report is the results of over a 12 months of analysis and detailed quantitative evaluation carried out by the core challenge staff at UTokyo and Systemiq, and was overseen by an impartial panel, comprising consultants throughout {industry} and academia and impartial consultants, to make sure the research’s impartiality. Mitsubishi Chemical Corp. funded the report and analysis.
The authors have made their modeling and evaluation publicly out there, and can host a digital dialogue on Oct. 10, 2022, to discover what is required from the {industry}, its clients, policymakers and the funding neighborhood to make the transition occur.
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Planet Positive Chemicals (full report)
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Report lays out future eventualities for international chemical {industry} (2022, September 12)
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