What criteria did NOAA use to determine its forecast for this hurricane season?
NOAA Forecasts Near-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season
Introduction
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its annual forecast, predicting a near-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic. This development comes as a relief following the highly active 2020 season that saw record-breaking number of storms and devastating impacts on coastal regions.
What to Expect
According to NOAA’s prediction, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is expected to have between 13 to 20 named storms. Out of these, 6 to 10 could potentially become hurricanes, with winds reaching speeds of 74 mph or higher. Additionally, NOAA estimates that 3 to 5 of these hurricanes might develop into major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher and possessing winds exceeding 111 mph.
Reasons for Near-Normal Season
Forecasters attribute the prediction of a near-normal season to the anticipated absence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. However, this year, neutral to La Niña conditions are expected, allowing for favorable conditions for hurricane formation and intensification in the Atlantic basin.
Preparations and Awareness
While a near-normal season might not be as alarming as an above-normal or extremely active season, it is crucial for coastal communities to be well-prepared and aware of the potential risks hurricanes pose. NOAA advises those living in vulnerable areas to have a hurricane preparedness plan in place, stock up on essential supplies, and stay informed about the latest weather updates and evacuation orders from local authorities.
Conclusion
NOAA’s forecast of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season provides some respite to regions still recovering from the previous year’s onslaught. However, it is important to remember that any given storm can be potentially dangerous, regardless of the overall forecast. Therefore, it is essential for individuals, communities, and relevant agencies to remain vigilant, prepared, and adaptable to potential storms and their impacts.
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