Morning Bid: Is it a bond bounce or a bull trap?

Morning Bid: Is it a bond bounce or a bull trap?



A look at the day⁢ ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookRelief extended from Wall Street to Marunouchi on Thursday, with bond⁤ yields and the⁣ dollar down further and stock markets stabilising.​ Gold rose. Asian stocks outside‍ Japan (and ⁢China, which remains on holiday) rose 1% (.MIAPJ0000PUS).A cooler-than-expected U.S.⁢ private payrolls report and Wednesday’s 5% drop in crude oil prices have helped.The ⁢oil slump was particularly noteworthy as the biggest in more⁤ than a year, pushing the price below where ⁢it was a year ago.⁤ So‌ oil is no longer ​inflationary.The yen has also risen to the strong side‌ of 149-per-dollar, giving traders⁢ something of a break ​from white-knuckling uncertainty over possible intervention by Japan.But risk sentiment has taken ⁣a proper beating on ‌the view that interest rates⁣ will stay high for longer, and it’s hard to see a durable recovery, since even if that view were to change, the catalyst would⁢ likely be a global recession.Economic news in⁤ the Asia session was ⁢also less than encouraging, as the soaring‌ price of rice has inflation on the rise in South Korea and the Philippines.And in any case, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ‍- a ⁤benchmark for global asset pricing ​- is still up nearly 90 basis points on the year, after a 200 bp rise last‍ year.Despite the breather, it makes ⁣for a febrile mood leading into Friday’s U.S. ‌jobs data, which caps the first week of the ⁢year’s final quarter.A strong number ⁤could set‌ off another round of selling.Reuters ‌GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Thursday:- U.S. jobless claims and⁢ trade balance- Central bank speak: ECB’s Lane; Fed’s‍ Kashkari, Barr, ‍Daly, Mester and BarkinReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edmund ⁣KlamannOur ‌Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Acquire ‍Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Source from www.reuters.com rnrn

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