Trump’s Advantage Over Biden May Be Deceptive
If the United States were to hold its presidential election tomorrow, Donald Trump would be preparing for a second term in the Oval Office. According to The Economist’s polling average, he is leading Joe Biden by 2.3 points nationwide and by an average of 3.8 points across the six swing states that are expected to determine the election outcome. Betting markets also favor Mr. Trump. However, it is important to note that polls taken before the summer of an election year have historically been unreliable predictors of the final results. Nevertheless, the current head-to-head polls between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden may provide valuable insights due to the firm opinions about Mr. Trump compared to typical challenger candidates.
Recent nationwide surveys have shown a wide range of results, with Mr. Trump leading by as much as eight percentage points and Mr. Biden by six points. Polling averages indicate a clear lead for Mr. Trump, but it is important to consider the varying methods and rigor of the polls. Democrats can find comfort in the fact that pollsters with a strong track record of accuracy tend to show better results for Mr. Biden, while lower-quality pollsters give Mr. Trump the edge.
2024-02-04 12:53:21
Post from www.economist.com