By Jack Nicas, Flávia Milhorance and Ana Ionova
Produced by Gray Beltran
Leer en español
For years, President Jair Bolsonaro has attacked Brazil’s election methods.
One of his claims has been that obvious patterns in vote outcomes present proof of fraud.
This is basically sturdy proof
that one thing occurred,
that one thing was modified
within the transmission or inside.
Livestream on Jair Bolsonaro’s Facebook web page, July 2021
He has repeatedly stated that election officers rely votes in secret, suggesting they might manipulate outcomes.
The votes which can be despatched to Brasília,
they go to a secret room!
My God. The rely needs to be public,
but it surely goes to a secret room.
Livestream on Jair Bolsonaro’s YouTube web page, April 2022
And he has stated that he suspects hackers tried to steal the presidential election from him in 2018, however failed.
The cope with these hackers could be to
divert 12 million votes from candidate Jair Bolsonaro.
To disappear with 12 million votes.
I repeat, I dont have proof,
and I don’t know whether it is true.
But that’s the story we’re investigating.
Livestream on Jair Bolsonaro’s YouTube web page, August 2021
Those claims are false, based on Brazil’s election officers, fact-checking businesses and unbiased election-security consultants who’ve studied the nation’s digital voting system.
Yet in speeches, interviews and a whole bunch of posts on social media, the president has persistently and methodically repeated these baseless claims and plenty of others about Brazil’s voting system.
The end result has been a yearslong marketing campaign that has undermined tens of millions of Brazilians’ religion within the elections that underpin one of many world’s largest democracies. In a ballot this month, three out of 4 of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters stated they’ve little or no belief in Brazil’s voting machines.
Now, Brazil is bracing for turmoil. While Mr. Bolsonaro has warned of voter fraud for years, he has by no means misplaced an election in three many years in politics. But within the contest for president on Sunday, he could also be dealing with defeat.
And he has steered that he wouldn’t settle for it.
For all of us, we’ve three alternate options,
particularly for me:
arrest, dying or victory.
Tell these bastards
I’ll by no means be arrested.
O Tempo, September 2021
The New York Times combed via a whole bunch of hours of Mr. Bolsonaro’s interviews, speeches and weekly livestreams and hundreds of his social-media posts to map his efforts over eight years to criticize or query the voting system.
The ensuing image confirmed an elected chief, first as a congressman after which as president, who has constructed a story of fraudulent elections primarily based on inaccuracies, out-of-context reviews, circumstantial proof, conspiracy theories and downright falsehoods – very similar to former President Donald J. Trump.
His proof has centered on obvious abnormalities within the voting course of and outcomes, typically introduced with out attribution, and he has framed hypothetical situations of fraud as way more possible than they’re.
As Mr. Bolsonaro has gained energy and fame, his claims have been amplified by members of Brazil’s Congress, conservative pundits and his grownup sons, in addition to a broader community of misinformation peddlers, based on The Times’ evaluation, which additionally relied on a database of livestreams compiled by the Brazilian journal Piauí.
Despite his claims, there was no proof of fraud within the digital voting machines since Brazil started utilizing them in 1996, based on unbiased consultants, Brazil’s election officers and overseas governments, together with the United States.
Instead, the machines helped eradicate the voter fraud that after racked Brazil’s elections within the age of paper ballots.
But the system is exclusive. Brazil is the one nation on the earth to gather and rely votes completely digitally, with out paper backups.
Mr. Bolsonaro has seized upon that as a significant flaw: Without backups, he argues, one can by no means ensure that every individual’s poll is counted appropriately.
With this method right here,
it’s not possible to make any type of connection
or correlation between the voter and their vote.
Congresso em Foco, July 2022
Election safety consultants say that a number of layers of safety stop fraud or errors.
Officials take a look at a whole bunch of machines on Election Day to make sure they’re recording votes appropriately.Each polling station posts vote counts publicly, making certain that they match up with the nationwide tally.Outside consultants examine a number of the supply code of the machines’ software program.Most voters use their fingerprints to unlock the machines, whereas others current photograph identification to ballot employees.And the machines usually are not related to the web, considerably decreasing the probabilities of a hack.
Mr. Bolsonaro started criticizing the voting machines when he was nonetheless a congressman, simply after the 2014 presidential election. That 12 months’s center-right candidate for president had disputed the outcomes of a slender loss and demanded an audit. The audit confirmed no fraud.
To Mr. Bolsonaro, that was not sufficient.
Just as I’ve no approach of proving that there was fraud,
no person on the opposite aspect can show that there wasn’t fraud.
House of Representatives video, October 2015
Mr. Bolsonaro vowed to finish the all-electronic system. In 2015, he helped lead Congress to go a measure to require paper backups. But the Supreme Court vetoed the change, saying it will violate residents’ proper to maintain their vote secret.
Mr. Bolsonaro claimed the choice confirmed that the political institution was defending a weak system to assist leftists rig the subsequent election.
In that election, in 2018, Mr. Bolsonaro ran for president. At the time, he steered that the election’s outcomes couldn’t be trusted due to the voting machines.
Whoever wins, the opposite aspect will increase suspicion
as a result of,
as a result of no nation on the earth has adopted this mannequin.
UOL, September 2018
Then he received.
Yet Mr. Bolsonaro nonetheless claimed fraud. Without proof, he argued that the election had solely gone to a runoff as a result of the left had stolen votes.
If the outcomes had been clear, he stated, he would have received within the first spherical.
As president, he continued to push baseless claims of fraud.
He typically depends on rumour, presenting unattributed reviews of irregularities within the voting course of as proof of one thing amiss.
We’ve heard — it’s onerous to show,
for instance,
that individuals use glue on the voting-machine keys in additional humble areas.
The man goes there, places a little bit glue on No. 7,
and anybody who needs to vote for 17 cannot.
Livestream on Jair Bolsonaro’s Instagram web page, June 2021
In July 2021, whereas president, he introduced that he would present, as soon as and for all, proof that the system was rife with fraud. Instead, in a two-hour livestream on social media, he once more pointed to a collection of obvious aberrations.
He confirmed an area newscast from 2008 that stated that some voters in a single rural space claimed their votes weren’t counted appropriately. (The federal police investigated and stated there was no fraud.)
He confirmed a video from a programmer who claimed to display how voting machines had been hacked in 2018. (Experts and fact-checkers stated the video was riddled with errors, together with a basic misunderstanding of how the voting system works.)
And he confirmed a montage of individuals complaining that the machines wouldn’t allow them to vote. (Election officers stated any malfunctioning machines are shortly changed. In many circumstances, officers stated, the problem is a mistake by the voter.)
Some of his central proof was a spreadsheet of vote returns that he stated confirmed uncommon patterns. He claimed that the sequence of outcomes was nearly statistically not possible, suggesting an algorithm was controlling the returns.
This is roughly equal to you successful the Mega Millions
six instances in a row.
Can it occur? Sure.
But the possibilities are near zero.
Livestream on Jair Bolsonaro’s Facebook web page, July 2021
Election officers and consultants stated he introduced inaccurate knowledge.
Mr. Bolsonaro later known as overseas ambassadors to the presidential palace for one more presentation that he promised would show fraud. Instead, he rehashed outdated complaints.
This 12 months, he enlisted Brazil’s army in his combat, saying it will guarantee voting was secure. The armed forces analyzed the system and proposed a collection of minor modifications. In response, election officers adjusted how they deliberate to check the machines on Election Day. The army has since steered it’s comfy with the system.
Yet, weeks earlier than the primary spherical of voting earlier this month, Mr. Bolsonaro continued to boost suspicions.
If I’ve lower than 60 p.c of the votes,
one thing irregular occurred within the election company.
SBT News, September 2022
On Oct. 2, he acquired 43 p.c of the vote, trailing his challenger, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, by six million votes — much better than polls had predicted.
But days later, with out offering any proof, he steered there was fraud.
Even the outcomes graph that was made right here,
making an allowance for every vote proportion that was reported,
created a uniform determine, proper?
Quite like an algorithm.
Livestream on Jair Bolsonaro’s YouTube web page, October 2022
Brazil’s army, which monitored the voting through the first spherical, discovered no indicators of fraud, based on a prime army official who spoke on the situation of anonymity as a result of he was not licensed to talk publicly. Mr. Bolsonaro’s authorities has not launched the army’s findings publicly.
Officials in Brazil and overseas at the moment are fearful that if Mr. Bolsonaro loses on Sunday, he’ll declare the vote was stolen and name on his supporters to take to the streets and demand he stay in energy.
At a rally this month, he informed supporters to collect at polling stations because the outcomes are introduced. As the gang chanted his nickname — “legend” — he informed them there was no approach his opponent might feasibly win.
[Crowd chants “Legend.”]
On Oct. 30,
in inexperienced and yellow,
we’ll vote.
And greater than that,
we’ll stay on the polling stations
till the outcomes are decided.
I’m sure
the end result would be the one we’re all ready for.
Livestream on Jair Bolsonaro’s Facebook web page, October 2022
