Donald Trump looks terrifyingly electable
WHAT MIGHTY armour Donald Trump wears. It is undented by a post-presidential impeachment trial, four ongoing criminal trials for 91 alleged felonies and all the attacks of the Republican challengers for the party’s nomination in 2024. Mr Trump’s hold over his party looks ironclad. His challengers appear quixotic as the first ballots of the primary, to be cast in Iowa in January, draw nearer. Shy to criticise the popular former president, his rivals have repeatedly argued that Mr Trump would be unable to defeat President Joe Biden. Democrats, who refused to even entertain the idea of persuading the octogenarian president to stand aside, seemed to share this analysis. Both have gravely underestimated Mr Trump. He has a considerable chance of being elected president—fair and square—in one year’s time on the first Tuesday in November 2024. If the election were to be held tomorrow, he would even be considered the favourite.
Even among Biden fans, doubt is creeping in. Over the weekend the New York Times released a series of polls conducted with Siena College in the six swing states that will almost certainly decide the result of the 2024 elections (see map). To sleepwalking Democrats, who believe that Mr Trump has been rendered unelectable after his shameless attempt to overturn the previous election, the results were like a bucket of cold water in the face.
In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania they found Mr Trump to be leading among registered voters by a margin of at least four points. They found a lead for Mr Biden only in Wisconsin, by a margin of two points. Below the disappointing toplines, the crosstabs contained more worrying findings. In these critical states 42% of Hispanic and 22% of African-American voters said they would vote for Mr Trump, which, if true, would mark the collapse of the minority support that Democrats had relied on for decades.
2023-11-07 07:14:02
Post from www.economist.com
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