But to many contained in the administration, what Mr. Putin omitted was extra necessary than what he mentioned. There was no menace that the United States and NATO should yield to his calls for that troops depart the previous Soviet bloc nations that at the moment are a part of NATO, and that each one nuclear weapons be faraway from Europe, or he shall be pressured into what he has beforehand and mysteriously known as “military/technical means.” It could have been a short lived omission.
And Mr. Putin did say that the American and NATO responses, the textual content of which leaked to a Spanish newspaper, addressed none of his core considerations. But he recommended there was nonetheless a while for diplomacy, putting a really completely different tone from his demand a couple of weeks in the past that he wanted “written guarantees,’’ and needed them immediately.
Some who have jousted with Mr. Putin for years saw a man looking for a way out.
William B. Taylor Jr., a longtime diplomat who served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said on Wednesday that he thought Mr. Biden’s more aggressive posture — a shift he calls “from passive deterrence to active deterrence” — was working.
“I think Putin has already blinked in some sense,’’ Mr. Taylor, who burst into public view when he testified at the impeachment hearings of President Donald J. Trump, said in an interview. “He was in a stare-down. And now he is looking for a way out. He’s overplayed his hand, and he may, for a while, settle for entering negotiations on a series of topics.”
Others usually are not so positive.
Some Russia consultants inside and out of doors the federal government say that whereas Mr. Putin is looking for respect for Russia as a terrific energy and actual consideration to his safety wants — complaints that the West has largely ignored — prolonged negotiations over new arms management treaties or reciprocal limits on troop actions and workouts are unlikely to fulfill him. He will need concrete concessions now, on this view, earlier than he can pull again from the border.
Several administration officers say they assume Mr. Putin’s curiosity in diplomacy is only tactical, and non permanent. They suspect he doesn’t have all his forces amassed but and should not wish to cross President Xi Jinping of China by invading simply because the Winter Olympics are starting in Beijing. Mr. Putin is rising from an extended Covid-related isolation to affix the celebration later this week, and he’ll use the second to satisfy with Mr. Xi, with whom he has fashioned one thing of an alliance of comfort.
The Olympics finish round Feb. 20, and the administration’s Russia fingers say that would be the time to evaluate whether or not they have had any impression. Perhaps, they are saying, he’ll check Mr. Biden by attempting to take extra territory within the Russian-speaking east and south. Perhaps he’ll attempt to undermine the Zelensky authorities by turning off the facility, or communications.
But a number of echoed Mr. Biden’s assertion two weeks in the past at a information convention, when he mentioned, “My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.”