Set greater than a decade after the occasions of the primary movie, “Avatar: The Way of Water” tells the story of the Sully household.
Disney
It’s been greater than a decade since James Cameron’s “Avatar” shattered field workplace data. To today, it stays the highest-grossing title globally, aided by a number of re-releases.
Its long-awaited sequel, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” can be set to be a blockbuster, however how huge of 1 stays to be seen.
The film, which opens this week, is about to snare between $150 million and $175 million domestically throughout its opening weekend. If the movie opens in that vary, will probably be the third-largest opening of 2022, simply behind “Doctor Strange within the Multiverse of Madness,” which tallied $187 million in May, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” which scored $181 million final month, in accordance with knowledge from Comscore.
While the primary film solely opened with $77 million in 2009, “Avatar” had unparalleled endurance on the field workplace. Released in December that 12 months, it ran in theaters by August 2010, a whopping 234 days. The movie in the end generated $760 million within the U.S. and Canada and greater than $2 billion from worldwide markets.
“In the large image, I’d anticipate a leggy field workplace run whose story will not be advised on opening weekend alone,” stated Shawn Robbins, chief media analyst at BoxOffice.com. “This will not be a comic book guide blockbuster with an obvious rabid fan base to front-load gross sales. James Cameron movies have traditionally engaged normal audiences deep into their theatrical home windows, although it is price contemplating that the field workplace local weather has modified even since his earlier Avatar movie in 2009.”
“The Way of Water” can have minimal field workplace competitors till February and phrase of mouth might assist the movie maintain on to profitable premium screens like IMAX.
A 3-dimensional launch technique
Premium codecs shall be a giant issue within the movie’s opening weekend and its general field workplace run. Cameron and Disney have marketed “The Way of Water” as a must-see 3D film, that means nearly all of showings for the movie would require particular glasses and a steeper ticket worth.
In truth, a staggering 56% of seats heading into the movie’s opening weekend have been programed for 3D showings, in accordance with knowledge from EntTelligence. For comparability, Marvel Studio’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” solely had 17% of its seats put aside for 3D.
Premium codecs additionally include a much bigger price ticket than their customary counterparts. EntTelligence estimates that for “The Way of Water” 3D tickets will common round $16.50 every whereas 2D will value round $12.50 a bit.
This uptick in ticket costs is anticipated to buoy the movie’s opening weekend numbers in addition to its general run in theaters. The film will want the enhance. Cameron advised GQ that the movie will must turn into the third or fourth-highest grossing movie in historical past to interrupt even – that means the movie might want to crack the $2 billion mark globally.
The China issue
If “The Way of Water” is something like the primary movie, it’s going to get a significant enhance from worldwide ticket gross sales. More than 70% of “Avatar” ticket gross sales got here from overseas markets in 2009. And it’s going to profit from a launch in China.
The Chinese field workplace contributed round $265 million to “Avatar’s” world tally a decade in the past, however the market has grown considerably since. Prior to the pandemic, China was the second-highest grossing theatrical market on this planet. Since cinemas reopened within the nation, it has been one of many quickest markets to get better and generate field workplace success.
In 2009, China’s general field workplace reached $910 million. A decade later, it topped $8 billion.
“Avatar” noticed nice success in China throughout its preliminary launch, and subsequent rerelease in early 2021, as audiences flocked to cinemas to see the movie in premium codecs. These screenings are dearer than conventional laser or digital showings and might bolster general ticket gross sales.
Perhaps most vital about “The Way of Water” China launch is that it’s going to happen on Dec. 16, the identical day as its home debut. Disney noticed success with this technique when it launched “Avengers: Endgame” on the identical day within the U.S. and China, resulting in the best world opening weekend in cinematic historical past.
“The enormity of the stakes for ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ and its field workplace efficiency are profound on many fronts,” stated Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, noting that there are three different movies within the Avatar franchise in growth.