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An intriguing study published in PLOS Biology by Kevin Gross from North Carolina State University, U.S., and Carl Bergstrom from the University of Washington, U.S., delves into a mathematical framework based on hidden-action models in economics. This framework sheds light on how the invisible aspects of effort and risk influence the research strategies of investigators and the incentive systems in which they operate.
Scientific progress often requires taking risks, yet many funded research projects tend to play it safe. Gross and Bergstrom’s research explores how the unobservable nature of risk and effort hinders the pursuit of high-risk, high-reward research endeavors.
The model they developed addresses the challenge of rewarding scientific discoveries in a way that motivates effort and risk-taking while also safeguarding researchers’ livelihoods from the uncertainties of scientific outcomes.
An interesting dilemma arises from the need to balance incentives for effort and risk-taking, as failed projects can be perceived as either a result of bold risk-taking or mere laziness. This conflict leads to a situation where the encouragement of effort inadvertently discourages risk-taking.
As a consequence, scientists tend to gravitate towards safer projects that demonstrate effort but may not advance scientific knowledge as quickly as riskier ventures would.
To address this issue, a social planner prioritizing scientific productivity over researchers’ well-being could incentivize major discoveries enough to promote high-risk research. However, this approach exposes scientists to greater livelihood risks, ultimately leaving them worse off.
2024-08-15 13:15:03
Original article available at phys.org