A pair of seismologists at Côte d’Azur University has discovered a potentially accurate method for predicting earthquakes. In their study, published in the journal Science, Quentin Bletery and Jean-Mathieu Nocquet analyzed high-rate GPS time series data collected prior to earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or higher. Roland Bürgmann from the University of California, Berkeley, has also published a Perspectives piece in the same journal issue, outlining the team’s work on this new approach.
For a long time, seismologists have been trying to predict earthquakes in order to provide people with sufficient time to react. Having several minutes of warning could be extremely helpful, as it would allow individuals to evacuate buildings that may collapse. However, finding a precursor to earthquakes has been challenging due to limited information about the events leading up to a quake. In this new study, Bletery and Nocquet have managed to retrospectively examine land movements before major earthquakes.
In their search for earthquake precursors, the researchers obtained and analyzed precise GPS data from the geographical areas surrounding the epicenters of 90 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or higher over the past few years. They identified a pattern—a slip between tectonic plates that gps-as-an-earthquake-predictor.html” title=”Potential Use of GPS as an Earthquake Predictor”>caused measurable horizontal movement in the land above them.
Furthermore, they discovered that these slips could be observed and measured using GPS, occurring up to two hours before the earthquake struck. These slips were too small to be detected by standard seismographs. Most importantly, the researchers observed the same slip pattern in all the earthquakes they studied.
This research suggests that a reliable earthquake prediction system could be developed based on a precise GPS monitoring system. However, Bürgmann notes that further research is necessary to confirm the existence of such precursors for all, or at least most, large earthquakes. Additionally, he highlights the need for GPS technology upgrades to enable continuous monitoring of individual events.
2023-07-23 16:00:04
Original from phys.org