(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists lowered their goal for the S&P 500 index for the second time in a month, implying unfavourable returns for the 12 months, after a worldwide commodity crunch triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deepened the hunch in U.S shares.
Most Read from Bloomberg
“The larger risk to S&P 500 earnings stems from higher commodity prices, and in turn weaker consumer demand and economic growth,” the strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a notice to shoppers. They revised their year-end forecast for the principle U.S. equities benchmark to 4,700 index factors, from 4,900 beforehand. The strategists now count on earnings-per-share to develop an annual 5% to $221 in 2022, down from a earlier estimate of 8% development to $226.
Goldman’s preliminary year-end goal of 5,100 factors for the S&P 500 was reduce final month, following a rout attributable to fears that the Federal Reserve should tighten its coverage extra aggressively than beforehand anticipated to tame surging inflation. The selloff has since intensified as a wave of sanctions towards Russia — one of many world’s main commodity producers — over its invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated value pressures.
The current retreat signifies that Goldman’s revised goal nonetheless sees a ten% upside from present ranges. On a full-year foundation although, the outlook implies marginally unfavourable returns for U.S. shares, a far cry from the ferocious rally of 2021 that noticed equities climb to successive information.
The worst could also be but to come back, because the Wall Street behemoth’s economists see an as much as a 35% chance of a recession within the subsequent 12 months.
A recession danger is “partially priced” at present ranges, Goldman’s strategists stated of their notice. “In a downside scenario, we expect reduced earnings and valuation multiples would cause the S&P 500 to decline by 15% to 3,600,” they stated, recommending that traders preserve obese positions within the vitality and well being care sectors to climate the storm.
Story continues
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.