A trio of environmental engineers at the University of Illinois Chicago has utilized census data and an annual demographics survey to make projections regarding the growth or decline of U.S. city populations leading up to 2100.
Predicting changes in city populations is challenging due to the numerous variables that can influence growth, stagnation, or even depopulation. Factors such as immigration, tax rates, home prices, birth rates, job availability, and even the political climate can impact individuals, influencing their decision to stay or leave.
In addition to these factors, there is the issue of global warming, which could render some cities too hot to be habitable. Others, particularly those located on ocean shorelines, could become submerged. To simplify the task, the researchers decided to approach the problem by examining recent and current population trends.
To make their estimations, the researchers analyzed data from the U.S. census between 2000 and 2020 to track current population trends for 24,295 cities in the U.S. that had consistent data available. They utilized two datasets from the Census Bureau’s 2020 TIGER/Line Shapefiles to project future trends for 31,568 U.S. cities. They then compared these trends with climate change estimates under various scenarios.
The team discovered that up to 50% of U.S. cities could experience population declines over the next 70 years, compared to 43% in 2020. They also found that the most significant population declines are likely to occur in the Midwest and Northeast, although not in the largest cities such as New York and Chicago. Conversely, they estimate that cities in the South and West will experience more growth, particularly those that are already well-established and currently expanding, such as Phoenix and Houston.
2024-01-14 07:00:05
Link from phys.org rnrn