WASHINGTON — President Biden mentioned on Friday that the United States has intelligence displaying that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has made a last choice to reject diplomatic overtures and invade Ukraine, in what Mr. Biden mentioned can be a “catastrophic and needless war of choice” in Eastern Europe.
Speaking from the Roosevelt Room within the White House, Mr. Biden mentioned “we have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days,” including that “we believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people.”
Asked whether or not he thinks that Mr. Putin remains to be wavering about whether or not to invade, Mr. Biden mentioned, “I’m convinced he’s made the decision.” Later, he added that his impression of Mr. Putin’s intentions relies on “a significant intelligence capability.”
Still, Mr. Biden implored Russia to “choose diplomacy.”
“It is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table,” Mr. Biden mentioned, referring to deliberate talks between Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Russia’s overseas minister on Thursday. “If Russia takes military action before that date, it will be clear that they have slammed the door shut on diplomacy.”
In the hours earlier than Mr. Biden’s late afternoon remarks, Russia-backed separatists in japanese Ukraine referred to as for mass evacuations in two contested areas of the nation, claiming, with little proof, that Ukraine’s army was about to launch a large-scale assault there, an assertion that appeared supposed to impress Russian army intervention.
The ominous messaging of the rebels within the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk was loudly echoed by Moscow, elevating fears that Russia was setting the stage for an imminent invasion that might ignite the most important battle in Europe in many years.
The name by the Russian-backed separatists for evacuations got here as they blamed Ukraine for an array of provocations, together with shelling alongside the entrance strains between Ukraine and the separatist forces, and an explosion involving an empty automobile that pro-Moscow information shops mentioned belonged to the pinnacle of the area’s safety companies.
Mr. Biden, who had simply concluded a video name with a dozen Western leaders, rejected the claims as lies supposed by Mr. Putin to inflame the state of affairs on the bottom and supply a pretext for warfare — one thing the United States and different European leaders had been warning about for weeks.
He cited the bombing of a Ukrainian kindergarten as a Russia-backed provocation. And he pointed to Russian separatist accusations that Ukraine was planning to launch a significant offensive assault as proof of Russian efforts to justify army motion with misinformation.
“There is simply no evidence to these assertions, and it defies basic logic to believe the Ukrainians would choose this moment, with well over 150,000 troops arrayed on its borders, to escalate a yearlong conflict,” Mr. Biden mentioned.
The president’s feedback are the clearest indications of simply how shut the world could also be to the most important battle in Europe since World War II. He took the extremely uncommon course of particularly predicting the time-frame and parameters of the invasion, regardless of the dangers that he may very well be proved flawed.
“We’re calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly,” Mr. Biden mentioned. “Not because we want a conflict but because we’re doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving.”
The president didn’t say how the administration knew about Mr. Putin’s choice, however two U.S. officers mentioned the president’s evaluation was primarily based partly on new intelligence displaying that almost half of the 150,000 Russian forces have moved out of staging and into fight formation and will launch a full-scale invasion inside days.
The power consists of 120 to 125 battalion tactical teams, up from the mid-80s earlier within the month. And a few of the forces are Russian reservists who would make up an occupation power after an invasion, the officers mentioned. The officers requested for anonymity to debate authorities assessments.
Mr. Biden vowed that the United States and its allies have been united behind imposing extreme financial sanctions if Russia’s forces cross Ukraine’s borders. He mentioned he additionally held a name with Democratic and Republican lawmakers who expressed united help for the administration throughout a go to to Munich for a safety convention.
In Ukraine, the pinnacle of the nation’s Ministry of Defense mentioned the declare of an imminent assault by its army was categorically false and supposed to inflame tensions. But the ministry issued a stark warning to residents of the contested areas “not to leave their homes and not to use public transport.” It cited “information that Russian special services have mined a number of social infrastructure facilities in Donetsk,” with the intention of “destabilizing the situation” there.
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Feb. 18, 2022, 7:26 p.m. ET
The warning mirrored how Russia gave the impression to be pulling out all of the stops to strain the Ukrainians in need of sending its troops throughout the border.
The fears of brewing battle have been strengthened as U.S. officers mentioned that as many as 190,000 troops and aligned militias have been arrayed in and close to Ukraine, a quantity that features the separatists. The evaluation was delivered in a press release by the U.S. mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which referred to as it “the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War.”
Consistent with Russia’s contradictory messaging all through the disaster, nonetheless, Mr. Putin mentioned on Friday that he was ready for additional diplomacy. The announcement of the assembly between Mr. Blinken and the Russian overseas minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, calmed jittery markets and prompt that there was nonetheless hope for the disaster to be resolved with out warfare.
But Mr. Putin emphasised that Russia would proceed to insist on far-reaching calls for for “security guarantees” in Eastern Europe that the West has rejected — equivalent to a halt to the eastward enlargement of NATO and the pullback of the alliance’s forces from the area.
“We are ready to go on the negotiating track under the condition that all questions will be considered together, without being separated from Russia’s main proposals,” Mr. Putin mentioned in a information convention alongside his shut ally President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus, who was visiting Moscow.
Friday’s drumbeat of alarms from the separatists about Ukrainian provocations aligned with how Western officers have been warning {that a} “false flag” incident may very well be used to start out a army battle.
In calling for individuals within the contested areas to evacuate to Russia, Denis Pushilin, the pro-Moscow chief of the Donetsk People’s Republic, provided a stark model of what may be coming in citing supposed provocations by Ukraine.
Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
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The Kremlin’s place. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has more and more portrayed NATO’s eastward enlargement as an existential risk to his nation, mentioned that Moscow’s rising army presence on the Ukrainian border was a response to Ukraine’s deepening partnership with the alliance.
“Very soon, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will order the military to go on an offensive, to implement a plan to invade the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics,” he mentioned in a video posted on-line, providing no proof.
Kyiv firmly denied Moscow’s accusations. And in his remarks Friday, Mr. Biden mentioned there was “no evidence” behind them.
Although Moscow insists that it has no plans for an invasion, it has vowed to mount “a tough response” if the United States and its NATO companions don’t roll again their presence in Eastern Europe.
In an illustration of energy, Russia plans main drills this weekend that can embody the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles, the nation’s Defense Ministry mentioned, based on the Interfax information company.
Russia’s drills will check its strategic nuclear forces, which embody the land-based launchers, bombers and warships used to ship nuclear weapons. They will contain the Black Sea Fleet, which has been engaged in large-scale workout routines within the area bordering Ukraine. Mr. Putin will preside over them from a “situation center,” the Kremlin mentioned.
The Defense Ministry mentioned the drills had been deliberate upfront, and Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, denied that they have been supposed to lift tensions with the West. But they’ll come at a crucial juncture within the standoff over Ukraine.
Near the entrance in Ukraine, it was attainable to listen to the blasts from munitions fired by the Ukrainian army and incoming fireplace from the pro-Russian separatists.
A complete of 12 homes have been broken by shelling Friday morning, mentioned a neighborhood department of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
In remarks earlier than Ukraine’s parliament, the nation’s protection minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, urged Ukrainians dwelling within the separatist-held territory to not consider Russian propaganda that the Ukrainian authorities was going to assault them.
“Don’t be afraid,” he mentioned. “Ukraine is not your enemy.”
An estimated 3.5 million individuals reside within the two breakaway areas, and self-declared republics, and because the warfare began there, Russia has handed out citizenship to greater than 700,000 individuals dwelling within the Donbas area. In his messaging on Ukraine, Mr. Putin has warned of the plight of ethic Russians within the nation, saying that occasions in japanese Ukraine “resemble genocide.”
Highlighting the rising threat of army battle, Britain introduced Friday evening that it was following the United States’ lead in evacuating its embassy from Kyiv to the western metropolis of Lviv.
With fears working excessive that Russian troops in Belarus might invade Ukraine from the northern border with Belarus, solely 140 miles from the capital, the Ukrainian authorities ordered the location of the Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe closed to vacationers.
Valerie Hopkins and Marc Santora reported from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Ivan Nechepurenko from Moscow. Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.