If Ukraine fails to restore its energy infrastructure and protect it from Russian attacks, Ukrainians could face power outages lasting up to 20 hours a day, according to Dmitry Saharuk, the executive director of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company. The company has analyzed different scenarios, with the worst-case scenario resulting in a significant decrease in thermal energy production, leading to a shortage of about 2-4 gigawatts per day. This could result in a 25% deficit in the entire energy system, causing prolonged power outages.
Saharuk warned that large factories may start experiencing electricity shortages as early as November, defense enterprises in December, and critical infrastructure like water supply and sewage systems in January 2025. The situation is becoming increasingly realistic, with the company moving towards this scenario rapidly.
Even in the best-case scenario, power outages will still be inevitable due to potential attacks, though the air defense system could protect critical objects, imports may increase, and repairs can be carried out by DTEK and Centrenergo. Large industries may continue to operate, but there could still be a deficit of up to 12% in the energy system, leading to ongoing power outages.
Post from theins.ru